Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
