A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
